EPH65 The Analysis of Dynamic Processes of Virus Transmission: How Could Diagnostic Tests and Vaccinations Can Stop COVID-19 Pandemic?

COVID-19 reached its fourth year of pandemic since 2020. The repeated waves infections have been driven by multiple factors such as pathological traits variants, diagnostic accuracy, and vaccination conditions. This study revisits analyzes the dynamic processes viral transmission to generate new scientific knowledge. A cascade model from one case another was developed, theoretically analyzed how number infected cases at time t, D＋[t], can be changed t+1, D＋[t+1], considering six parameters: 1) k:level transmission, 2) Rt: effective reproduction number, 3) ρ: capture rate cases, 4) θ: immunity protection in individuals, 5) ε: evasion vaccines, 6) Sn: test sensitivity. formula which associates D＋[t] with D＋[t+1] given follows: = K・D＋[t], where K {(1－Sn) + (1－ρ) / ρ}{1－Rtk (1–θ(1-ε))k} {1－Rt (1–θ(1-ε))}. Also, assuming smaller than 1, lower limit sensitivity stop formulated: Sn > {Rt (1–θ(1-ε))－Rtk(1–θ(1-ε))k} {(1－Rtk(1–θ(1-ε))k)ρ}. In example computations, indicated that a one-off PCR 85% would not sufficient contain highly contagious Omicron it practically impossible control situation immune-evasive sub-variants circulation. theory developed this broadens science on evidence-based public health will useful for outcomes studies informed decisions policy control.